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    September 5, 2012
    11:00 - 2:00am EDT  

more people should take this seriously. i met a grew up that in the midwest of the united and worked for boeing as a safety inspector around the world. he was a you weren specialist on an assignment. ..
that burying -- he's been part of the movement entirely unpublicized of mainly american, but also international years who over the last 15 years have embedded themselves in the fabric a china's transportation infrastructure, saying if you want this to international standards, here is the way you can do it. there is a whole list of other people. i would distribute to other brief mentions of the carrot or is that was describing. one was a very cd seeming sales man of business jets. now maybe business that sells better like this as a category, but this guy seemed as if he would've been sidney green streets with a plate and if it were some movie of the humphrey bogart era. this is that the hong kong air show a year and a half ago where he was selling business jets to ambitious chinese millionaires, mainly from southern china. at the time, there was no place they could fly them because the airspace in china was tightly controlled.
at the time, and he didn't know what they would do with them, but they thought it would be worth having in their own neighborhood airports as a sign of their mad at the same spirit as these transactions conducted in cash with a great big walker full of money. there are parts of the world were walker full of money would suggest narco trafficking and whatever else. we know their correct aspects of the chinese business boom, but the skill and the excitement about the rest i have -- i open the book with the description of one other person who has decided as outsider to make his way in this wild west frontier going on in china, a man named peter clay suis one of many linguistics whizzes i saw in china. and his role was to sell a kind of airplane called sirius. if any of your pet deer come you'll know about this coming out the most popular small airplane in the world come of the kind i started back in 2000 about one myself an iphone around it.
it will bring the four seats, single engine and crucially a parachute for the entire plane. if things go marti coley red handle, the parachute comes down in many, many people have been saved. people couldn't use them at the time come and put businessman who wanted to park in the lobby of his business said that his mistresses and girlfriend and business competitors could sit and be impressed with his magnificence. it took a flight with peter clay's as a ferry pilot which i'll describe one of leader ron. it was some of the locations of white -- but the level they are now out. my point just to bring this first part to a close is that in our lives of traveling around china, my wife and i had quite a different impression from living in japan during its boot time and 1990s. she mainly marveled at the
system, the organizations of corporations and schools and the way that individuals are part of a larger system. in china from my perspective you may only marvel the individuals and the friction -- the centrifugal forces around the country where people give turns to quote eric toby is in the middle of the world. sissy and these people i thought there is a tale to tell. let me now go to the second part of what is going to discuss initially, which is some of the larger tensions and developments within china that she is the microcosm and the suspect of high-tech innovation in the plot lines you can see anomalous in the other part of what is ambitious and frustrated unpromising and not developing in china. one of them of course is the nature of the all out push for in china.
people often say how can the chinese public would oppose some of the constraints and limitations and oppressions of life in china in these days? the main answer is over the past 30 years from people at fighters in the past, tenures in the past, they recognize their life is much better prospects are much better than before. this is thanks to the all-out push the government has been direct aim and the main engine for her. the part of the push underway right now is the famous 12 five-year plan. how many of you have studied the plan? you know, in the united states and u.s. context, the entire idea of five-year plans sounds preposterous. they are taken serious in china and this one in particular is like a chain in the curve for the chinese economy. it says basically looking backwards china's successes have
almost been enough low-wage factoriescome the building, road roads and all the rasputin the future under this plan they want to have more high-tech. they want infotech industry from a biotech industry coming clean take energy and aerospace industry. so the idea of the country can move from its current level of technology is something played out in this industry and a lot of others. another major theme you see about china in this field and others is the style of what i think of as the real estate centric theory of modernization. if you look for an explanation of almost anything happening in china now and say well why is the seaport go in there? why is this ancient village removed? why is x, y or z happening? real estate deals may not be the only answer, but usually the first. it is the case certainly in the huge boom and aerospace
construction is underway in china. i don't know if anyone knows the actual number of airports being built in the united states now. i have heard too. i've heard one, for zero come i've heard for, but it's a small number. in china 100 airports under construction, which revoked based if in fewer than the u.s. to begin what, but this is a sign both of the idea of building infrastructure with the idea thinks will follow and also all the intermediate people who are making money peatland for the airports, track owners, navigation equipment. chinese people and foreigners are making the spirit so you see in this field anything you've read about zero cities in china with a landfill, land bubble, that same plot and pressure is underway in aerospace ambition. you see in this field something i came to view is very, very important to making sense of
china, which is a way that everything is simultaneously true. i mentioned before the way contradictions exist. but we think about economic indices, and people ask me what is the balance between high speed read aviation? with the balance between more water traffic at more than bourne traffic? the answer is more of all of them. there is more high speed rail from other people or more epperly and all of that. there is something i'll just allude to as a major point. it's a large theme in my book, which is the existence of a semi-sovereign power in u.s.-china relations that is hardly ever discussed. and that is not the subornation of the united states or the sovereign nation of people nation of people's republic of china, but the unacknowledged sovereign of the boeing corporation, that many of the crucial turning points in china's decisions about what to do had been intermediated usually in a beneficial way by
boeing. here is one illustration. about 15 years ago i described a major chinese airline got its first contract with regular flights to california. there were very excited about this from a huge opening a great mark of prestige for the first plane landed lax, it was to run the bases to inspect restrung the faa were impounded and said no, no, no camile nutley interprets a maintenance record anymore. the airline was aghast and sharp. they can't touch with boeing is that how can we keep her in your products if we can fly to the united states? blowing up very subtly and effectively midwifed an arrangement between the u.s. faa between flight schools in the united states, people who do training than their chinese counterparts and said he recently went safety systems. janecek pilots during inspections for their brother-in-law or next-door neighbor. you have to have some system
peers that even today can do many things that matter in chinese aviation are being sorted the tripartite negotiation of china, united states and boeing are the ones working these things out. one other -- i'll mention one or two other points that come together in this narrative. any of you who been in china know firsthand what the rest of you know theoretically, that the environmental challenges are in my mind the worst problem for china and the worst challenge the nation faces in its drive to modernize. this of course affects aviation because while flights are in some ways resourced savings, it is more efficient workplace remote western china than build railroads they are. of course emissions from aviation are an important claim at issue because they come out of high altitude. so therefore is another of our mental areas there's a balance in china between how terrible things are and how hard the government and private
industries are trying to improve them. and aviation dishes up both in good ways before example, huge research project run by boeing and the tsingtao university and algae fuel and also a very unexpected way where one of the most important environmental barriers to better environmental management in china turns out to be the chinese military almost all the airspace of china is controlled by the military and airlines take very indirect, contorted and inefficient routes through this. many of you know airliners in the u.s. if you listen to the pilot their final 30,000 feet is 10,000 feet, which is a much, much less efficient way because of military regulations that many people argue to name the chinese airlines could double their traffic with no increase in emissions if they got rid of the literary control of the
airspace in the efficient routing. there's the environmental issue, military issue. there's one other point, which is the surprising parallel between the openness and closeness of outside life. something i like about living in china was the way it seemed permeable and accessible. there is always a way to do something if you had a friend from a new friend, played some suppressing approach, you could find ways to do most games even i thought the race protest zones weren't fat people being arrested and all the other problem is we know about the closeness of chinese life that happens in this aerospace world come over you find in some ways the foreign presence is very, very tightly integrated the chinese life on his own. so just to bring the second part before the brief third. almost all the charm is underway now in china whether it can save
the economy from a direction local boosterism is so powerful in this field, with the ways in which it is connected to a set standards or not. these tensions are also being reflected in the aerospace world. let me now move briefly for two or three minutes to talking about china itself. and i will confine myself to a point about china from a question about china and a point about china and the united states. i think a fascinating question, a crucial question for china, one that really is the one that lies behind this book, but even beyond the importance of this book, it's for china, to, which is whether china is ever going to be something different from what it is. here's what they mean. if you look at over 30 years in
china, you see a place unrecognizably different in countless ways. i was there with my family it was a very different place. your rooms were surveilled which they got contrived visas to get in there. now of course is different. it is different and aware that some chinese and foreign people think it's reaching a limit. a development model based on low-wage factories where they make the ipaq and my hand to discuss $500, only $50 in china. is that a formula to get rich in the long run? it is not right to assemble products for apple from a different to have your own apple you're developing. it's manufacturing on construction of new cities in exile round the world.
it may be nearing its limit, even in china there's only so many new 10 million person cities you can build, new seaports and there was a fear of china entering what is called the lower income trap of becoming a bigger and more intense version of itself, but never really becoming rich. and that is under active debate by everybody the chinese economic leadership saying if we look ahead or two years, to reimagine ourselves more like germany, japan, the united states or to reimagine ourselves more like mexico or another metal power developed in certain ways, but hasn't become rich thoroughly. so that is one huge question that runs through the current chinese reaction to economic sanctions and also to the political problems we see with chung one shown. the reason these matters the
following interesting connection. if we let back 20 or 30 years, we know that people who said so confidently that is china prospers that will democratize they were gone. china has prospered and democratize very little. it's much more liberal than before, but not much went democratic. a different version may apply 30 years ahead, which is to question whether china can become rich if it does not become more liberal. it is a lot more free, press, for internet, whatever. that is the main question in china to consider. the question about the united states involves how we use the chinese example. something i believe very strongly is that things that are right about america and wrong about america have almost nothing to do with china. the main connection in my view is what is most right about america is its ability to attract and exploit an outside
share of talent from around the world. many people are chinese. i say i'm glad to have them here, even glad to have the trained year ago not to china because it is long-term beneficial influence in my view. i think what is good about america is not to have been related what is bad about america also in my view is not china's fault at all. in his own responsibility for how to come is distributed and all the rest. but the challenge for us to china is to see whether for another 20 or 30 years we can manage the same situation that has so far, which say that we welcome support and can tolerate the emergence of a poor country as it moves up in both economic and diplomatic influence around the world. without directly threatened by that, but while simultaneously recognizing ways in which we disagree on strategic issues,
political value issues and all the rest. so i think there has been significant success by both the leadership said china and the united states over the last 30 years in managing this relationship so it is not known up and said the huge shift in world power has a password conflict and it has. a challenge and a sense of whether that's possible for 30 years further on. there is more i can say on a lot of these points, but for now i will say that is my opening pitch. i wrote this book because i thought i'd seen something in my role as pilot in china that most people don't know about it is revealing because it has a cast of yours. of all things interesting within china, hot modernizers institutional relationships can the central relationships, increases in liberty and similar for user in the stroma and finally there are large-scale tensions for china in its development in our relations, which i hope to shed some light
on and i'll be happy to discuss with you further. thanks for listening to this part of my presentation. i'll be happy to hear the questions that jonathan weber, my former boss -- where is jonathan? the editor at the industry-standard long ago will join me up here. so thanks for listening and i look forward to your questions. [applause] >> well, thanks, jen and thank you to the commonwealth club for presenting this form. as jim mentioned were colleagues back when in fact i tend a chair that fallows fan for pretty much my entire career and it was a great privilege to have to work at the industry-standard and what i especially appreciated actually was when i manage to convince jim to come on board, one of my hopes was he would be
a role model for the very young staff and accomplish that in spades and i've always greatly appreciative of that. >> it was a great time. a great editor of the magazine went from being the fattest mags in the history of the world to not being around a year later, but it was great while we were there. >> so there's a lot of kinds of topics they could discuss and i thought i'd start out by asking what i think is one of the core questions relating to american relation to china and especially business relationships to china is certainly a core part of the book. that has to do with how american companies send a specially high-tech companies with intellectual property can and should relate to chinese counterparts. you talk a lot about boeing's enormous role and they will assert individuals and building of the aerospace industry and the close relationship of the
wane and other companies to their chinese counterparts. a cynic would say that it's idiotic and they're essentially giving away their competitive edge. how do you think about that? >> i think all parts -- all attitudes are correct. to me talk about in the general terms and then inserted the boeing ge specific situation. the chinese economy of the last 30 years that the japanese economy unlike the u.s. economy from 1840 to 1890 took significant damage of other people's development and piggyback on them. if you've read charles dickens diary from his travel to america are you serious about the pirated versions and his works in the united states. it is an unfortunate but
familiar, but that is .1. .2 as it is a role of u.s. governmental policy and also something for corporate strategy to put pressure on the chinese to change these practices. for example, two weeks ago during a strategic and economic dialogue in beijing, which was overshadowed by that shine case, one of the deals the u.s. is pushing was a different property regime and more enforcement from chinese officials. so this is something with the outside world needs to keep pushing. here is a sign of progress or not depending how you feel. in china i have an actual genuine timex watch, but when i lived in china at $5 rolexes. a different between hong kong and mainland china is in mainland china they say here via
in hong kong with his british inheritance, the hucksters have to say fake rolex, fake rolex that there's transparency and labeling. i think the corporations must be hypervigilant about this amounted to an aviation illustration in a second. but also recognized in the long run, china is going to trap itself if it can't solve this problem for some corporation because it won't have a some pharmaceutical companies, its own if they can't be protected against their own people. that is why the solution of this low-wage trap issue is interesting because china is to solve it and become the country that has its own boeings, apples , rolexes, that will suggest a lot of other changes in how china has done its business. so that is an important point. finally an aviation, the crown
jewel of aviation and intellectual property are actually the engines. so ge and groceries are properly thinking all the time about how they can do what they must inside china, but also to keep their most important work safe as much as intel has tried to do open a chip plants in china, but not its frontline plans. >> and have they been properly vigilant in your view? >> as they say, time will tell, but they are certainly hyperaware. i think the aerospace analyst thinks that chinese aviation industry as we can mention to elegy. whether they think that tony aeruginosa different matter, but the ambition of ge, rolls-royce is to keep that gathering place for a long time. again, if china succeeds it will suggest a lot of other things it has changed.
>> and not point about other things solvent in changing from the rule of law are good examples and that plays into something you mentioned earlier that somehow an order for china to become a wealthy country, it has to be sort of more western and away for lack of a better word. and do you think that is happening? or do you think is true or do you think is happening? >> away i put the version is true, that in the west were used to thinking of democracy and liberalization as part of one package. we think of that's how things are. to suggest how they can be analytically impractically separated. china is really the only major country where people have no vote in national leadership. they have become much room for
both of was a generation ago. people can travel much more and read more things although still too few. i think these liberalize values. it's interesting that they differ in lots of ways, but the social traits they have. they respect the role of freeing nbc's unprecedented free speech and independent research and intellectual problem and that kind of thing. a bundle of traits, max weber would've talked about the cultural basis of capitalism, that is something to become rich, china will need to manifest more of that and see whether that is possible. >> in terms of trends over the last year and current leadership change in leadership change. do you think it's heading in that direction or is there a chance it will essentially
reverse? they've done a left to right spite and malice bougie via being sort of a maoist and there've been a comeback of that. i mean, is that a possibility that we will essentially see a tightening of globalization? >> and a hypothesis as. it is a plea for why it is so difficult to be sure of what is going to happen here. let me give one of the most recent indicators of uncertainty. if you look back over 30 years, you can see that there are variations up and down in all the things you've been talking about, liberties within china, kind of a more perfect of government. variations up and down, but the trend has been positive. it's been more liberal, not western convalesce columnists to
talk or. in the last three years or so they have been reversed and i describe in my book a condition of permanent emergency where there's always some special circumstance that requires cracking down whether it's the olympics or shanghai expo or the arab spring. so what nobody knows is that this is a three-year lip and the moving average is going up or whether this is a turn. i also hope it's not a turn, but i think there are part of the tension you see in the leadership struggle is people with different views about what is most strongly china. some people say what is most strongly china is you have all these billionaires like the guy i saw in a golden bentley in beijing and the guy of some of your passport in an ox cart with
his shoulders. people say there's too many billionaires and people being left behind. other people say what is most from the china are the stuff i'm talking about. still arbitrary is becoming rich in modern in a deep sense. these things says the speaker played out and contended over. >> and would it be fair to think about that is sorted in crude terms a left right split? is that a useful -- >> you could think of it that way. i think probably misleads americans more than it correctly these done. they joke by friends in beijing is the only communists in china with the cuban ambassador to beijing, who was always writing these public letters criticizing for revisionism and how could a lamborghini dealership is reconciled with marks, et cetera. we can call it left, right, but the kind of left right are so at
odds with what we have in mind that i've try avoid that. >> you think americans or america should fear china and in particular, you know, there is a wave of sort of fear of japan and someone else had asked this question. there was great fear of japan at one point. that turned out. nonpayers fear of china. how does that compare to japan banned in china is now in the fear and worry is a good response. >> let me say something about japan, seer and china. i think two of the most different countries have ever been in our japan and china. there are obvious similarities one in character-based writing
and a look and feel and operations committee a really different. it is in japan like living inside a watch, where everything is so tight the pictured mayer's precision. there's not a lot of extra room for you, for china is like living in a giant web descramble there's always something new to be done. i still think that the japanese technological and corporate over the last 25 years is actually more threatening to the united states and china despite difference of scale because you have these head-to-head national champions. your toshiba, toyota and sony. so japan is still a rich country. so japan is different situations and there's reasons. on the phenomenon of fear itself, didn't article, trying
to have seriously, are we going to? i was falling apart? one of the interesting things from historians is america they have always created the specter of imminent collapse as a way of doing business. the first sermon on the decline of america delivered on u.s. soil was 1630. in 1620 things are great, but now. kids today have lost their values, so it is part of how we are doing it the senses of imminent decline. it may mean we're going to decline at a certain point, the part of our propulsive nature. if foreign challenges are moved in a constructive way by saying that the chinese can build this wind energy plan, why can't we do it, too?
if it's in a menacing way were about to be slaves of the chinese, that's useful. china has so many more problems in the u.s. people have spent much time in the interior of china, vat at the u.s. should be afraid of the country, which has more poor peasants and we have people and which has environmental problems you can't imagine anywhere a party bus told me a couple years ago something that stayed in my mind. they see you americans think of everything in china multiplied by 1.3 billion. we think of everything divided by 1.3 billion. we should take it seriously. >> the book is about aviation and a lot of special characteristics about the aviation industry. they are unique and i wonder if
the way in which other industries. its comparable or different in what way? >> i was using aerospace and aviation as an example of a category i describe as apex industries. they are different from us going forward. the development so far in china has been amazingly a mediated by a site can denise come outside investors. lots of investors in china. if you look at japan during industrialization, it was hard for a site corporations to invest there. if you go to china and big factories, they're an american, german, korean, some of them are japanese. so there's been this externally financed that a rebuild nsi set construction boom in all the rest which is gotten into a certain point. the industries that china does
not have our things like pharmaceuticals or like world popular or certain kind of innate applications in aerospace to because to succeed a carbon apex industries because there's a whole strip structure that you have to have worked out. certain research institutions, a certain kind of quality standards, political military relations and all the rest. aerospace, clean energy, high-end infotech, these are things the chinese want to develop and haven't yet. so i think the reason i use this industry is a specimen as it is a representative specimen of all the entrées of the target that the planners of the five-year plan and the 13th and 14th beyond that had in view. >> so you look in the way the
specifics of how aerospace is developing any talk about the center on siam. how does that compare with the early development of the aerospace industry in the u.s. around los angeles essentially quite >> the origins in u.s. and china could not be more different in that there have been every fat are in the u.s. created today's diverse ecology, where there's los angeles but also in wichita and new york and also in the dallas-fort worth area. in the u.s. with simultaneous emergence of lots of entrepreneurs in the early 20th century, the right brothers and everyone who followed the period we had a multiplicity of funding sources. the army air force has a purchaser for the right brothers, but the postal service did the most effect to industrial planning or industrial policy in the u.s. by having airmail pilots and saying this is the market for
airplanes. we have individual barnstormers come air force all over the place. so we had a very, very rich structure. in china this has been military from day one. and so airspace was controlled and military secret. it's amazing to put a big chinese cities. they are extremely noisy, but not noisy from overhead. not helicopters despite mr. hsu's airliners because airports are usually far away. so what is the effort almost like the russian soviet economy of going from a military run system trying to willett into the civilian world. and trying to liberalize something by central government fiat. it is a trick, but some in the chinese have gotten used to and this is a really interesting test case for them. >> so do you think some of the things you talk about these airports. giant airports in the middle of nowhere. do you think those are going to
be real airports? or do you think 20 years from now will look like silly white elephants. >> the white elephant in china is a highly populated one. you see me of cities that can hold 2 million people at our holding no people. it's worth recognizing it in the near existence they serve an role and people are hoping these things. it's also the case that infrastructure in china has been under bill so far as to the overbuilding they assume will be cut up sooner or later. the united states is 5000 of which about 100 plus are suitable for big commercial airliners. it is fewer than 500, so they're trying to ramp it up. a lot of these things the quick wacky, booster projects. i describe one of them were
people in the equivalent of some alpha and nevada built this huge runway with the idea that they would absecon currents of silicon valley and disney world and universal studios in seattle boeing factories all in one place. they're probably not going to do that. but the idea is there's so much pent up demand for emotion of people that there'll be some take up the slack and in the meantime they create jobs. it's a communist keynesianism minutes finest form. >> is there as best he can tell grassroots enthusiasm? to talk about kind of the general enthusiasm in china that the future enjoyed the prospects. does that extend broadly and specifically about aviation? so a few tax rate hasn't come
what they say we're going to have airplanes or did they not really care? >> some of them would say that. i describe a man i met at the hong kong airshow at the same place inside business with these suitcase full of cash. this is a guy who probably in his late 50s have suffered the cultural revolution had always dreamed of being a pilot when he was a little boy, that he felt what he called the body exam and i didn't ask them what exactly do not. so he became a welder of some chinese industry. in the end that making a whole ton of money selling structural steel for floral exhibitions around china. there's enough you can become very rich. he is now building his own airplanes in himself and wishing shop in flying around northeast china and he was buying his own service airplane, which is a couple hundred thousand dollars airplane in the hong kong
airshow and he was thinking my childhood dream has come true. i would say in a variety of a country of a billion plus people as a whole cynicism, a whole lot of jadedness, who a lot of of jadedness, who a lot of the chinese call bitterness, putting up with hardship. but the kind of cockeyed op with his son that was often described of america at the early 20th century, east timor it were chinese people than i think you do here, but america as a whole is people saying the sentence, my dream is sent however the sentence ends mayberry. but there is this my feeling is ask around a lot of people. it's fun to be a part of. >> so one very good person that came from the audience when you read the book and read about these things any talk about about the dutch premier worries
and creating things from nothing throughout these streams. but it is in fact all guys. what is the role of prospects of entrepreneurs in china. >> in the chinese, anyone who spent time in china recognizes that chinese women are the dominant force in chinese society, not structural labors in terms of force of will and force of personality and all the rest. in many, many times so find chinese businesses, not the corporations, but smaller dishes they have a role player. they are underrepresented by u.s. standards and lots of discrimination against girl babies versus boy babies and all the rest. aviation has been the most female pilot is a whole -- a
real piece of work. i'll say something about her. she's probably in her mid-40s now, pictured in lots of camper -- and typos as if airplanes in the background. she travels in the company of her teenage son so she can only say this is my son. most people think we are siblings. he rolls his eyes and is going to deerfield next year and the sinking to get out of this. aviation is mainly a male world. but the texture of chinese society's female in a strength and ingenuity and charm and warmth. >> tc entrepreneurs in china? >> yes, it was the case a couple years ago that the richest person with a woman who had a scrap recycling business. a woman named who shoot the list appeared here, which is an important factor journalism in
china and finding ways. so yes i think we'll see more and more prominent women playing roles of all sorts of china, including much preparers. >> the last question, which is the card has your sorry come the big question. what do you think is the most important thing for today's american high school students to understand about china? >> let me make how to answer that. i think that they should learn to feel comfortable with it. by that i don't mean there to feel, learn to knuckle under to it, learn to revere it, necessarily than the language of those easier when you are a high school there. but rather to feel at ease with rather than threatened by a world of which china plays a large part. i think one of the best things for china is so many people have studied in the united states
said either they stay here college is good for us, or they go back to china to which is good both for china and the united states. so if american high school students could find ways, including spending time on scene they are sometime in teens or 20s to spend months or years there so they are comfortable with it and recognize in their world this is a fact dirt, not one that has to be their main business or they have to learn about defensively. but just making it and accept it a natural part of their universe i would say is the most important thing for young americans to do. >> so we will end with a complement comment. as a long-time reader of your work and a list on npr come is a pleasure to hear in person. and i would second that here's a thank you very much. >> it's a real honor to be here and appreciate your great moderation and thank you all for coming on a beautiful evening.
[applause] >> on a regular basis on booktv on c-span 2, we visit universities to talk to professors who are also authors. this week we were at columbia university in new york city and now joining us is history professor at columbia, evan haefeli, who is the author of this book, new netherlands -- "new netherland and the duth origins of american religious liberty." professor haefeli, what is new netherlands? >> new netherlands is often new amsterdam, but more than just the beginning to new york, a big chunk of territory which technically ran from the hudson river down to the state of delaware, including what is now pennsylvania, new jersey and most but not all of new york. >> when was it sounded?
wended europeans find a quick >> new netherlands began in the 1620s as a colony founded by the dutch and lasted until the 1660s. 1664 was conquered by the english. there were series of bangladesh was the 17th century. the dutch recapture the place. people don't notice much, that became again in 1673, 74 and was returned by treaty to the english. >> what were the calls for the dutch first-team to north america? what were the reasons they came on? >> while henry hudson from the discoverer of this area for the dutch was of course looking for the northwest passage to assign for the geese in the country was finding a way to asia sailed up the hudson, which went pretty far, but didn't go all the way to the pacific and discovered
that people better had very nice furs and very interested in the furs. so the colony began at the first trading post and then with a small base of farmers as part of what became the dutch west india company's empire in the atlantic ocean. it is an empire that included a couple small islands in the caribbean and for a little while as parts of brazil and some posts in africa as far as they're based in north america. >> so it's a commercial reason for coming over, not so much religious. >> it was a commercial reason, yes, but it was tied up within the broader goals of dutch imperialism, which at the time was to attack and take territory away from the spanish empire in
the portuguese as well. peter stuyvesant himself, new netherlands began his career fighting for the dutch in brazil and then he went to caress out in the caribbean, a dutch island and only then did he come up to the new netherlands. so it shows the connection between all these places, even though new netherlands was not the frontier, it was part of this wider imperial after. >> was peter stuyvesant a religious man? did he care about religion? >> yes come in many people involved in pretty much everybody at the higher level, and many people further to carry much about religion. because even though it was a trading company and address military objectives that the dutch were fighting for independence for the spanish.
the spanish in spain was an empire, had a claim to sovereignty over the dutch but was also a famous roman catholic power. many were protestant and all of the major founders of the dutch west india company were calvinists and stuyvesant and whispered in my part of that, part of that mill you, you can say. >> where is the religious liberty part of this? wiki are we missing? >> they undertook this study because i was a graduate to get out of the story of american religious diversity. it is something more interesting and important about america that we had so many different religions. and we never had one single officials a religion like you
have in england, france. it seems there is some aspect of that fact as part of what makes american society different from european societies with the churches. in the case of americans religious freedom, one of the seeds origin point that people refer to or where this toleration and diversity comes from is the dutch colony of new netherlands. not stuyvesant himself, other people in the colony, directors, the broader touch system, which even though it had an official church, and never forced people to conform to a single religion in a way that the english church, for example dead, which is what caused the puritans to leave and go to new england. so i thought that looking up at the dutch day, and this is what
i've been led to believe by such scholarship existed if i would see the beginnings of the distinctly american way of handling religious diversity. the more tolerant way from a more loose come easy-going attitude. and actually i didn't find anything like that at all. i found very little connection between what the dutch did and what colonial americans and u.s. americans do afterwards. so it is slightly misleading title perhaps the majesty of your to the question posed by the title is there's actually very little connection between dutch tolerant than american religious liberty. >> when it comes to the dutch, did they rate in rules about religion? >> yes. and the fundamental part of the dutch constitution, the union of
utrecht that rocked the different dutch provinces together and was basically their constitution until the 1790s as one of the dutch republic existed provided for liberty of conscience and forbade the coercion of religious belief. so right from the beginning, you could not do in the dutch republic or was considered normal in all the other kingdoms of europe, which is to force people to conform to the national church, which was of course in that country considered the true correct form of religion. the dutch reject about from the very beginning. however, they did also have an official church. they called it the public church. and this i learned was the real key to understanding what was distinctive about the dutch because they did not force
everybody to belong to the official religion of the state, which was the dutch reformed church. however, and if you no dutch society now, there's a big difference between what the dutch legacy in public, versus what is possible in private. and in public there was only one church principle, only one church could be associated with the state, with the higher levels of office, with all sorts of privileges. even though it was subordinate to stay, it was only one church, but dutch reformed church. so even though they couldn't force people to the dutch reforms, if you wanted to get ahead in dutch society, chances are he might join this church. >> how his new netherlands beat her the best of the colonies and the rest of the current, or at that time the united states?
>> what is interesting is new netherlands and what i found in the end is very sick at the cant about new netherlands for american history is that it was a slightly different dutch story, which sits in between the famous new england story of the peer sends in the southern story of virginia and maryland and the chesapeake colonies. and in all of those places, but the important but at the time very minor exception of rhode island, you had a belief in a single church and you have enforcement of the single religion. maryland was a bit of an exception, also because that had a catholic over a largely protestant. but the majority in virginia, within new england along to one single church.
and people who would not or could not fit in with that system would have to flee and some would go to maryland. a few went to rhode island. but a number of people from new england came to be another land, make became much more congenial and much more prosperous place to be than rhode island. >> professor haefeli from what you teach at columbia? >> the american revolution, native american history also very important for the early american experience in the american experience as a whole. and also american religious history. >> how do you research 300-year-old religious history? >> you start with other research that other people have done and were very reliant on scholarship
for us and that provides end in the end you just go back to the original sources. in the case of new netherlands, we are very lucky person organization in albany called the institute, which has for several decades now collected and transcribed and organized many of the crucial services relevant to new netherlands history. for my buck, what was important was getting a dutch contacts of the new netherlands story. so i had to go back to the netherlands and archives in the netherlands and amsterdam, which is also religious archives relevant to the hague, which has the official archives. and then also old books and other scraps of evidence and
visit documents and new england archives. and on the one hand is tallied during modern u.s. history. you don't have mounds and mounds of sources to go through, but on the other hand you have to find things. you have to piece together bits of evidence from small scraps of paper which i find challenging and rewarding task. >> so what is the take away if people read this book? what you want them to remember and learn? >> well, i guess there's two things if i may.ú?ú?ú? the first is that there is a9?]? dutch@? contribution. i'm not trying to disown not, but it's somewhat more indirect than what worries to think enough. i think it's very significant that the dutch were here and doing what they were doing and that is because they did not force conformity.
you could have people like lutherans and quakers in that case who would all become important later on in new york history living here. they didn't chase him out, didn't force them to come here. at the same time they did not allow them to express religion in any publicly visible way and that's the other thing that i would like people to appreciate is just how this dutch system worked and how it was different from the english system. and that had the -- retained control of this area. you would've had some religious diversity, but in amsterdam but not probably have evolved into something quite like amsterdam. instead it would've been a much more calvinist reformed protestant part of the world.
.. and that's really makes a
difference in the history of new york and the history of the mid atlantic. without that, jersey and [inaudible] new york, pennsylvania, delaware all of that would have been impossible. we would have had something like the greater connecticut or virginia. so the very fact that the dutch were here, that at least, [inaudible] booktv c-span2. the chinese leader deng xiaoping on the exact of china's efforts to control the world's basic resources. later on james on the rise of china's aerospace industry.
during the republican national convention and dnc denying we're asking middle and high school students to send a message to the president as part of this year's student cam video document ray session. they will answer the question what's the most important issue the president should consider in 2013 for a chance to win $5,000 and $50,000 in total prizes available. c-span student cam video competition is open to students grade six through twelfth. go online to
an expert on japan and china. he visited asia every years since 1958. professor vogel coauthored fifteen books, many articles, and popular journals. the japanese edition "japan is number one: lesson for america." is still a best selling book. he began studying the conservation of china spending eight months at the invitation of the government, the exploring the economic and social progresses of the progress since he took the lead in pioneering economic performance in 1978. the result was the "one step ahead in china."
and i'm happy for the mentoring and the encouragement and the friendship that has offered. a junior colleague since the retirement, but, of course, befriending junior colleagues has not been the main focus since the years of his retirement. he devoted his time to complete the book on deng xiaoping. the book was recently awarded a prize for contribution to international understanding, i'm sure it's going to be the first of many awards for the extraordinary book. the masterful and comprehensive study -- deng played a major
role. how did he be researching and writing his study of deng xiaoping's life? welcome ezra vogel. [applause] it's a great pleasure to be introduced by you. he was one of the young stars in china around the world. having gone to oxford and coming from canada originally, and harvard is lucky to have him as a professor of chinese history. when i was retiring from harvard in 2000, i was trying to think what i can do that would help
make americans better understand what was going on in asia. and i decided -- [inaudible] set it off on a path it was going. if you want to understand the needs you understand madison, jefferson, washington, how to hay formed the country, that could be a good basis for understanding what was going on in the united states. so current china was very much saved by deng xiaoping. he came to power in 1978, and he was the dominant person right up until 1992, a period of about fourteen years.
what i i won't talk more than twenty minutes. would be talk about some of the forces that shaped deng xiaoping for what he was and what he did to transform china. because 1978, the country he inherited had a per-capita-income of less than $100. now it's it's on the path deng xiaoping set it on. there's almost no migration from the country side to the city and since he came perhaps 200 million people have moved from the country side to towns and cities. when he came to power, the country was still involved in the cultural revolution and people were full of -- [inaudible] forward each other. he worked to unite the country to set it on the new path. what are some of the forces that shaped him?
>> one, -- just after the versailles treaty there was an outbreak of student movement in bay beijing of chinese nationalist, duping deng xiaoping at the time was a youth in high school, but a few high schools were progressive joined in the demonstrations and deng xiaoping joined in the demonstrations. eric erickson talked about how certain youth at the certain time when they have their identified formed with a movement or with an institution it becomes very basic central to his whole life. and so his dedication to
national focus really began already at age 15. his experience after world world war i a lot of chinese students wanted to go abroad. they didn't have the opportunity they did have today to study in united states and europe, and canada and get scholarships, but the idea was that chinese business people was work part time and then they would earn money and study at universities and come back and bring what they learned to chinese and help build up a new strong chinese. he was 16 one of the youngest in the group to pass the exams and go to france, and of all the
countries that the chinese students wanted to go to, france was the main one. during world war i about a half of million chinese workers went to the soviet union to work, and about 150,000 went to france. so there were a lot of work opportunities in france, and the chinese thought that was a great [inaudible] and from that period came that communist youth league. what happened was to get there the first of -- they had to be well educate and that meant their parented had to have money.
and there weren't any jobs. the fact i are jobs were available went to frenchmen. they saw that the -- [inaudible] were living in lavish homes and great styles of life. the workers were pool. the chinese over there get dirty greasy jobs that ordinary french workers didn't want to get. when they foreigned the study groups and try to think the broader explanation -- several years early ease in the soviet union in 19made a lot of. exploding in working class and that the countries who were already fairly well developed were exploiting those from the poor nations and so that group
that had gone to france was so disappointed they could not studied in the universities. they were not able to save enough money to get in to universities and they just continued to work in factories.
it was a -- he was in the army for twelve years and it was an active wartime. so his job as political guy in one of the leading units in later as a threat commander for the largest military battle in history. his role was to try to rally the troops. a lot of other leaders go way back to the 1940s and [inaudible] which was more protective from outsiders. they had room to talk about theory and philosophy and generations. deng xiaoping was on the front lines for twelve years. his job was to get ready for the next battle. he had to be pragmatic. he didn't have time to thought about theory and philosophy. he learned theory in moscow after france where he was for a year. but he didn't have the time
really to engage in discussion. he was busy with the battles. another important influence that i should have mentioned about the year in moscow when he was in moscow, was 1926, to 1927, at that time the soviet union had a new economic policy. the economic policy was have a communist party in charge, but to have rampant markets open to foreign trade, open to foreign investments and the communist party was able to provide leadership to them. the [inaudible] the same experience from 1949 to '52 when he was in charge of the southwest the prove enses in southwest schien china that had about 12 million people. they had a socialist transition. deng had a lot of experiences in
leading the communist party and having an open market in china. so after 1978, when he began to develop that pattern over the communist party leading and open economy, it wasn't new to him. he already had the experience. another important experience that helped shape deng xiaoping was his experience as general secretary of the party. [inaudible] way back in the early 1930s when deng was criticized and -- [inaudible] for leading the [inaudible conversations] he was in a province and down there he was accused of following too closely to someone and he was in trouble for that.
while now in a way was chairman of the board as a chairman of the party and chairman of the country. dunn dunn has a -- deng xiaoping has a responsibility for dealing with issues. i think another thing that shaped deng xiaoping was the failure to break it forward. for in 1959, when the greatly -- [inaudible] was really devastating the country side, people were starting large numbers and the latest estimates are that
perhaps 50 million people were died prematurely during that because of famine. it was caused by the excessive [inaudible] established system and move rapidly to socialism that was not based on realities and was not based on what was going on in the outside world. now it never been abroad. deng xiaoping had been broad had a better sense what was going on. let me move from those influences to what deng xiaoping when he came to power in '78 mao died in '76. he was pursuing the revolution to the end. he wanted to shake up the country and to have people attack those who were going what was called the capitalist road who were too free and independent. and so the most of the senior leaders of the party were
criticizing [inaudible] in 1975 one of the first things he did was to start working on education. he took over responsibility for foreign relations and education, science, and technology in august of '77 when he came back to work. mao had purged him. he always thought about of dunn deng xiaoping who might learn the lessons. while some of the people were in prison, deng was sent off and hope was that he would come back and work for the good of the country and help the place grow. well, deng xiaoping when he came back in august of 1977 one of
the first things he did was to open the universities and require entrance examinations. the universities had been closed from 1966 at the begins of the revolution, and deng felt that for the country to progress of all the modernizations in the screenings, agricultural, national defense, schedule, technology, education. seasons, technology, and education was the most important. he wanted students to come back to universities. in order do that, he wanted to have entrance examinations. under mao considerations were important in to getting in universities and [inaudible] deng felt that in 1977, there were no longer any landlord they had been wiped out early in the 1950s. the other people had been wiped
out. therefore, the country could go strictly by merit, and so entrance exams to the university was strictly by merit. in 1977, when deng decided to open universities he made it entrance examinations and those who passed got in. so the people who first passed those tests were like 7 million who took the exams and a few hundred thousand enter universities. but that group of talented people many of whom had worked in the country side or been involved in the other labor, had they wanted to study were extraordinary thankful for deng xiaoping for letting them come back to universities. another thing that deng did that was very basic was send people abroad to study. when frank -- president carter's science advisers an m. i. t. proifer -- professor went to
china in the summer of 1978, they had begun talks of [inaudible] and deng said to frank we want to send hundreds of students to the united states as soon as we know the relations and we want tens of thousands to go later. are you ready to accept? poor frank didn't know what to do. he 0 phoned jimmy carter in the middle of the night. i interviewed jimmy carter in his role relating to him. frank said h didn't mean too wake him up. he was ready go ahead and send the students abroad. now over 1 million had been abroad. and the students were willing to achieve what he was not able to achieve in the '10s the opportunity to learn from worldwide what was going on.
one of the biggest reforms that deng made was decollectization, and politically was extraordinary because many people who were dedicated communist and many of those who work in the country side felt that the communist system was basic and it was the basis for what they were trying to do. deng managed to handled it beautifully. it he didn't do like an american politician standing up at the campaign and saying i'm going be doing that. not at all. what he did was to allow one of his best friends, one to go -- [inaudible] he told -- [inaudible] if people were starving, you have to let them do whatever they can to find a way to earn
their own -- grow their own food and survive and not starve to death. even the conservatives couldn't oppose that. and so one of the local peasants decided what they could do to get ahead, and sure enough a lot of them began farming their own family plots and broke off. and then what deng xiaoping did he sent some journalists there to observe what happened and report in beijing there was a lot of progress. production had gone up in the areas where they tried it. and then deng xiaoping announced that if people really wanted to, and in areas where there was a serious famine, they should be allowed on a broader scale to find a way to produce god on their own. and within a year or so, over 90% of the country had done
that. it was a way -- it was a brilliant way in which deng xiaoping supported the conservatives. he didn't go out on any limb. and he let the thing develop gradually so that more people supported. in the fall of '78, one of the reasons why i mentioned fallen in the closer -- [inaudible] become so important is because it lead him to think that the china needed go in a different path. one of the important things was also forming good relations with the major countries from which they would learn. he had already been to europe in 1974 and '75 and 1920, and '25 as well as to the visits in france in '73 and '75 and southeast asia. he had good idea what was going
on in the outside world. he wanted others to get the same kind of education. so in the number of 1978, he -- i'm sorry 1978 encouraged delegation a prime minister [inaudible] and vice deputy ministerial to lead a group of people from all the major economic units all the economic mission planning commission, construction commission, and large ministries concern with various countries to take a tour of europe. when they came back, some people thought it was lead by [inaudible] and when they came back, some people thought that they would have a meeting this would last a couple of hours. they started -- [inaudible] china was behind the west.
much further behind. also that the europeans countries were ready to lend money and help out with the technology. so rather than being discourage by being so far behind europe, they were excited what they could do as a result of that. so in the 1980s another thing that deng did was to open up markets to the outside world. and hong kong played a key role. he knew that if he immediately said that the country could have markets that the conservative would be enfouruated and be in a lot of polarization. what he did was say let's draw some experiments. if they work we'll see. and he allowed some of these special economics down there in how hong kong along the southeast coast. a lot of chinese my grated
overseas to begin to open up the zones and he also knew that people overseas often been successful. business people and willing to invest in the own local area. he let them begin to bring in and -- because the government was so short on money, they relied heavily on these outside investors to provide the funds necessary to get the experiments started. and once those experiments started, then deng encouraged high level leaders to visit and see the progress. they were stunned by the new industry and construction they saw. in 1989, deng faced a serious
problem of student demonstrations. the students in -- well, let me back up. in the beginning of 1989, gorbachev was invited beijing to bring back the relations of the soviet union. they had been brokennen off when he went to moscow to argue. in 199, he invited gorbachev and his wife to come and on the conditions that a pull out of afghanistan the troops back from the chinese border and the vietnam pull out of cambodia. they accepted the conditions. deng invited the news people from all over the world. ..
and so tried to warn them if they didn't quite sound you would have to take some stronger stripes and on may 20th, he broadened the troops to try to get control. but they couldn't get control. he ran into all kinds of obstacles and people who didn't
come into the city. and so he said or did what he decided to do to allow the troops to do whatever was necessary to regain order and none should your come at you for , they entered the city and the best they had to 700 from 800 people killed on the streets of beijing. i think if i had written a book 20 years ago, nobody would have paid attention to it. because people were so upset at what deng did to crack down in june 4th that nobody would want to speak about stork will roll. in my book i try to be very clear exactly what deng did on june 4th grade and there's still a lot of people who feel it was a terrible thing. but i think as we look at chinese history, we have to
recognize the historical contribution. if we look at people like thomas jefferson and george washington, they owned slaves, lots of slaves as a terrible thing, and inhumane name. if we were to think about their role in history just run over owning slavery, we would've done a lot to reform their country. and i think deng xiaoping was a character and he needed to keep the peace and allow the country to grow. but he also led the country to modernization. since he came to power perhaps 300 million people have come out of poverty and are now living fairly comfortable lives. countryside has turned into an open area who has brought modernization, technology or raise the standard of living and
chinese people have really joined the world at an international organization to come back to china of every new technology, new ideas. and so it is really transformed the country. i think personally he start to think which leader of the 20th century did more to change the shape of rural history. i think there's a strong argument made it deng xiaoping because several hundred million people out of poverty, the country people got wealthy, much wealthier or raise their standard of living. and you really change the balance of the world of power because in 1978, china was a weak country. it was not considered an important country in world affairs. in may, china ranks under the united states in terms of influence in world affairs. so i think in short reality,
what i have tried to do this objectively as i can record what people consider good points and bad points and to recognize the extraordinary role that he's played in remaking history. thank you. [applause] >> you are joining us at cambridge forum with scholar ezra vogel with his transformational biography on den bashing. when you talk about his life in the military and army come you mention he was pragmatic and too busy for theory, which is ironic given he is the author of deng xiaoping theory promotion of students in china all have to study. one of the interesting things i found in the book is a suggestion for some of the reforms for which he is famous were begun under a street
assessor. some of his other reforms in agriculture and opening markets, for example involve transferring practices tried out in south korea and taiwan. was deng xiaoping a visionary? was he simply a good learner, or was it suggested in the conclusion of this book a competent manager? >> well, i go for the manager and if i had to poke one phrase because the idea to reform the note name was not unique to deng xiaoping. in evensong list criticized as the professorcoming out of this one chosen to be the successor who turned out not to be really great strong leader was in favor of a lot of this reforms. and a lot of the senior officials were in favor of this reforms. to some extent he did have a very long respect of other
visionary is the right word when he thought about hong kong, he said for 50 years they can keep the present system. if you asked about nobody planned to do for the next 50 years for his country, that would hardly be a serious question. i mean, no american leader -- four years as a long-term. and to think to the end of the year turned to the next election. so i think he did have a long-term to. at the same time he was experimental and didn't have fixed notions and he used the expression across the river regrouping for stones. and again, that term is somehow attributed to deng, but he didn't invent the term. he used the term and the ideas and he was a manager who put it all together and provided the direction that made it all
happen. >> you also talked about skill as a politician in pushing through the decoy divinization reforms. we've seen just this week with the ouster of one of the leading stars of young leaders in china that personality, politics and factional politics remain important in china. what enabled them to be so successful at managing and reconciling factional interests and factional differences? >> well, one thing i think its authority from working closely with mao. he had worked very closely to learn foreign relations and 73 and 75. he worked under john lyon in france as a young man and he also worked very closely with mao. but i think it was also he was smart. he remembered things a hundred%
design history. when i interviewed lee kuan yew about deng xiaoping, he said he thought deng was as great of a leader as he cannot because he was able to recognize what he learned and what he put into crack business networking and was ready to try something new. the step-by-step in awake people could accept it and would not add to polarization, but would help resolve polarization. >> that is a skill many politicians could benefit from having. welcome to cambridge for us to continue our discussion of deng xiaoping and the transformation of china with the harvard scholar ezra vogel. what brought china to its place today in the international economy? at this point in the program will take questions to the audience. please sign up at the microphone and asked one question. we want to get as many view as
possible a chance to ask the questions. >> thank you. i'm wondering if you would care to go off from this chronological history about why deng do to develop the country into its cultural anthropology and political philosophy. the great chinese miracle is booming, their tens of of thousands of chinese from a particularly in africa and other parts of the world gathering resources to see the great dragon if you want to call it that. and how the chinese people in these foreign countries are absorbing information, education whether they want to stay within the countries they visited worth it pledged are dedicated to return. so talk about the han, the tibetan buddhists, stuff like that in the scheme of this development of china. i think 30, 40 or so for us.
>> mayfield was sociology and anthropology, so i'm very happy to make a few comments. first of all, although mao was revolutionary in theory, he blocked mobility. he led people in the countryside to stay in their commune. they could move to the city. and people who work to miss the unit in the city were on hvac unit and they couldn't move easily to other units and the housing is a red state. so what deng did i opening up migration and allowing people to move from the countryside to the city as they have enough food to feed the city population completely transformed the society that had been really rigid and locked into one that was mobile. the old family system and a lot of the rural areas was not reserved when he moved so
rapidly and people in this city only had one child. as for the chinese going overseas there's only didn't going overseas. some are diplomats who want to keep good relations. some are working for chinois in a private capacity and pass it to set their well-informed of what goes fair. some are companies out there to make money and look at investments. some are energy companies that are set by the state to try to establish solid source of energy that will continue to fuel china as it continues to have more planned and remake china. so maybe that is a quick answer, but i think that's a very quick overview. >> i just have one comment and
one question. that is underpinning, the underlies that what you just described. that is his uncanny and unrivaled ability to seize power. for example after he was reading story and all of this, the restructuring the decor of the chinese communist party leadership. and the other example is staging the war in 1979, the real purpose was to challenge the chairman of the communist party at the time. soon not do that, the communist party chief was marginalized and eventually flown out of the leadership. so without the ability to seize top power than the chinese
communist party, nothing would be possible. the question is just very recently there has allegedly been within the core, the chinese communist authority bringing a tentative proposal to at least reevaluate the decision of the tnn massacre. of course this being highly controversial within the core of the communist authorities. so i want you to comment on the impact, the destabilizing in on the chinese communist party on the attorney on turning around this issue. >> in first-year assumption general comments, it is true of
course anybody had to have a firm grip on power to carry out a set dvd. and it is true that squabble followed was pushed aside in two years after the vietnam war. but i don't think deserve it. i talked to the kuan yew who followed the vietnam war carefully and many others and went through records of the war. and what deng was concerned about in 1979 when he invaded vietnam was the soviets and the enemies were cooperating. the united states had pulled out of the time. he was very worried that the soviet union and of the home were going to circle around and circle china on the base used by soviet ship and there is a real danger of encirclement and that
was the reason why he went to war. there are plenty of other ways to push aside and he didn't have to do much of the pushing. it was done by others. basically was done in november 1978 a group of seniors while deng was in southeast asia that they basically began to push aside. secondly on the question about june 4th, it is true that there are a lot of people in china who feel that those who are criticized for reforming demonstration in so far it you teach her to end their cases should be reversed. they should no longer be considered people who challenge the order, but who helped the order. because there are certain people living who are deeply involved in the june 4th and i'm
thinking particularly lipa and the successor who wasn't there, but succeeded after that, it is my best friends who know about inside power things in china suggested it would probably take many more years. they do expect that there will be a reversal of verdicts in tiananmen, but probably not during the lifetime and probably not during deng's lifetime. thank you. >> professor vogel, i appreciate your comments and reform. and we observe china going through a long history of reform without blueprint. and i haven't ranger boat. i'm sorry, but you have written in your book. i'm curious when you say you
have a vision of 50 years, did he have a similar vision on taiwan, the sovereignty of taiwan and tibet? and if so has it been going his way? >> thank you. first of all coming thank you for all your help at the asian center and the fairbanks center. he did have a long vision for taiwan. he wanted taiwan also to have the same system for a new year's and he was ready not even to station troops in taiwan, let them have their own troops. but unfortunately he wasn't able to resolve the taiwan issue. and what he felt was most critical as they were still sending arms to taiwan and therefore taiwan was not willing to begin to negotiate and they felt that as long as the united states was behind they didn't have to negotiate. so now we have a very complicated system, a situation between the united states and china over taiwan because as
america sells arms to taiwan, then taiwan does not want to up local integration. they feel they can remain independent. and that is very disturbing. he had hoped in his lifetime he would achieve the unification of taiwan, the most bitter disappointment he had of his achievements since he was not able to bring taiwan back into the name. >> is hard then to see beautification become inevitable. >> it certainly would. >> professor, i have a question about the current new administration. china is going through changing of cards this year and the recent scandal seems like there is comment that china is going to go backward, it's going to be
less open. i wonder, what is your view of the new administration? at this although in the past of deng xiaoping becoming more open market reform or do you think that is kind of going back quite >> there's a lot of things we don't know. in the united states before a person takes office we have election campaigns with their constant exposure to tv and press conferences. now champagne who is the new successor keeps quiet as possible. he knows that if he speaks out, it may disrupt things than it's very difficult therefore to analyze what he would do. he's not telling what he would do. he's not stating his policies. one can say a few things i think that gives clues. one when he was in fujian is a party secretary, he was very
open. secondly when enough foreigners in australia and japan and iowa, they feel he's a very open and they can deal with and a very frank and direct way and he is very brave. the third thing i would say judging by his father, who was very unusual. he was one of the leaders of this new opening a new special economic zones and was out on the front in doing that. and also, who yelled was criticized and drawn out in 87. he was most liberal and open-minded of chinese leaders. only one major that stood up at that time and that's his father. there is some reason for hope that champagne will be an open later and continue reforms more than the present leader is
doing. >> would have to go in order here. >> i have a very related question. many people see the transformation of china is not yet complete and the transformation of china is not yet come please and the part people have done as close to the economic transformation and that is predicted to be more difficult than they involve more interest groups. so what did we learn from deng's leadership in the strategy he used? how much can we apply those experiencing the political transformation? >> as you now, we had an expression of a continuous revolution. i think one could use continuous
reform. it is not just one stage that is all done for you. i think the reform is opening to continue. if it works the old rule of law will become more important. however i don't think we should expect them to follow western-style democracy. it is not clear to me that is their vision. they do need to find a way to a broader public representation so leaders have a broader base of legitimacy just in perpetuating the communist party and they are experimenting with various means and the communist party of voting national people's congress or more voting is more dissent. as more cases where you select a group and that the people concerned she's much of that group. so these experiments at the village elections. so i think these experiments
will continue and reforms that many kind will continue for many years. i think particularly now that corruption has become so widespread and such a serious problem that he champagne will have to take the recess to do with corruption and the current leader does. >> thank you, mr. vogel. i am a cambridge resident. my wife is taking treatment. i think mr. vogel is a well-known chinese export. highly evaluated by the chinese academic and intellectual coming of age. and i think what you talk about
his deng xiaoping's character, deng xiaoping's competence, i'll agree with you. he's very good, open the door 30 some years ago. one of the benefit, i come to you now 32 years ago. but deng xiaoping is a good decision-maker. he made decisions very quick. sometimes he make two quick. so 1989, trouble is caused by his own mistake if you don't discharge who job on, he
won't have so many students. so this is -- >> to retake a quick decision-maker and go to a quick decision possibly? >> yeah, but i want to say some pain. andy is also not a good reader. he's a good leader, but not good reader. all of his spare time is to pray the part, rach. he played bridge with the whole and he promotes his pitch partner to a high position. so he makes some mistakes. i don't want to waste people's
money -- people's time. i will buy your book. i appreciate my comments to your talk. >> thank you very much. i think deng did play bridge often once a week. but it's not true of the people he played bridge with were promoted. i was able to interview one or two others bridge players. one new but certainly not billions, but a bridge player. also deng tried to when he played bridge often god and his bridge playing star. he thought it was a good mental exercise to think about bridge. so we often -- he had a bridge
playing star and the other side also had one. so he thought that would improve his sons killed. he also likes to play pocket pool, billiards. he often played that also. thank you. >> deprogrammer harvard medical school brought chinese students here to learn about aids i think it was, the basic sciences. the interesting thing is students were all very bright and they knew their facts, but if the professors had to guarantee, they wrote that down. they never questioned any name. so one of the chinese american professors deliberately gave the wrong instruction robotics chairman. and when the lab experiment didn't work, he said and you believed me? but my question is, is this still true of students already learned to question even learned
professors? >> since china has 1.3 billion people, there's quite a bit of variation. but i think there's a very strong kernel of truth that is still true, that in the better high schools, the key point is to get ready for the university exams. and that is learning facts and mastering information and they do that very well. on the critical judgment is not something that is as much a part of the chinese education as part of hours. however, they've had 1.1 million people abroad. a lot of them have spent enough time here that they have more critical mines and overshoot a hundred thousand of that group have gone back and ahmad have become teachers that key universities. so there is an attempt in many universities to try to develop critical thinking in a bigger
way. but still i think the dominant pattern is to learn the facts, learn the information is he who is the greatest to get the information in the next level of examinations. that is still very dominant. in china now wants to become the world leader in science technology and i think it's not only the party has struggled attracting the world's best scholars because of some clamping down on free thought and free expression, but also the fundamental issue you draw attention to. that is that people are not taught to think critically. >> thank you. a >> at an office is your experience, but were the beneficiary at harvard because we have students who have rejected that and to then critical thinking.
>> beyond that, they also develop critical thinking. they ask questions. >> professor vogel, i imagine it will be 10 or 20 years before another biography about deng xiaoping at the level of yours is going to be written. when that book is written, what would you like to see it was covered but you're book was not able to cover? >> that's a great question. when i was writing it, i was afraid that somebody else might eat me to it. last night but there is no one else who has done anything comparable and it would take a few years to get anything comparable. some of it was having so many chinese that i could interview a lot of people that ordinary people could not interview. when i hosted in 1998, i was able to interview him about deng
xiaoping. i don't know if anyone else who was interviewed and. one source of information of horses going to come out and that is a lot of stories and meetings. and a lot of the rich detail of discussions on those records of meetings of come out and have a much richer picture of the decision-making process because deng did not keep notes. i think what i would like to see, i may not be able to see biographies to come, but i hope to make full use of records that give a richer picture of the decision-making process in consideration of what had been. i can sort of guys, but i couldn't nail down. thank you.
>> you gave us a very rich picture of the factors that contributed to deng success. cannot you don't have a lot more time, but aside from june 4, what were some of the big setbacks are challenges that these days during this long, long career. >> welcome them to three times he was purged with the first time he had been county chief at regent county and was thrown out of that job and for six months the theory was survived. but one of the people for whom had been with him in advance, was then head of the provincial party committee bottom on to take charge of propaganda for the provincial committee. the second time of course he was purged was in 1966 by mao
himself in the cultural revolution as one of the two leaders in authority who were taking the captain's road. the third time is in need 1975, early 76 when again purged for fear he would not follow his path to continue the revolution and continued respect for what now had been done. so i think those are all the kinds of things that were said max. but i think in terms of things you might call it errors or another error he made was in 1988 when he was in a hurry. it is true he was in a big hurry and the person he was paired with, genuine worked very close and was in some respect a much more cautious person. they often accomplish much more.
in 1998 for me was in such a hurry to release prices, he knew he was going to end his career said and he wanted to finish that off before he retired. he released all kinds of prices at the time when there already in pressures. so that made bush and the way skyhigh and that's part of the reason so many people in beijing were no longer in the seattle stick about deng as they had been before. >> are faster, thank you for preventing this history of american people. i'm 40 years old and from beijing. it is also the history of a lot of old for my generation and i grew up with these policies and i think this is great like more
american boat to know better should tack in china but not throughout the superficial than reporting from the race. so this is my fourth book already. i usually give them as gifts to american or people who are willing to know better about chinese history during the past 30 years. so my question will be very simple. this is the history for the future and for the near future. what is your point of view between -- i mean, what is your point of view of the chinese rise and the american relative? >> well, they be punished -- they be animated.
>> i think there's a lot of tension between china and the united states. as kissinger pointed out in his book, for eight presidents, once we'd done with nixon, all of them felt we must be engaged with china and must work with china. so even though there's a lot of attention and competition, in the end i think it's in the leaders interest of both countries to recognize that it is in their interest to contain the pressures for competition and particularly for distress. i think the most single problem we now refer to any term of strategic distress. and we are not sure chinese military intentions and they are not confident about americans. we say of course we want to engage in china, but they suspect may be we really don't.
and we hear the chinese leaders say they want a peaceful rise but in the south china sea, they have many patrol boat that are coming in contact with patrol from other countries. i think it's going to take a lot of determination on the part of a lot of leaders and much more open discussion of military goals and much more transparency in military preparedness on both sides in order to achieve the kind of cooperation and peaceful future that we all want. >> china faces a lot of challenges today not just internationally. many challenges created either by the policies implemented arising out of issues on his watch. china faces a looming demographic challenge, both in terms of declining numbers of working age people and declining
a terrible sex ratio imbalance as a result of the one child policy. extraordinary balance is driven in part by the expansion of the economy, political challenges in part by a middle class, which is demanding the right and so on. deng has gone to meet marx, but if he were still on the scene, what would he think what the biggest challenges facing china and what would he do about them? >> that is a brilliant summation of the issues facing. i figure deng wasilla today, perhaps the biggest issue is corruption because deng also thought of political support is key to power. as one of the most fundamental things he was concerned with. with so much corruption there's a danger people will no longer support leaders and communist party. and when he was stepping down in
1992, he said we must use to access. one says we must grab illegal behavior, corruption at the other fist. and i think he is of course much stronger and had a stronger base of power than the leaders do nowadays. if he were alive he was certainly attacked vigorously. but in terms of openness and also she would work very hard to deal with that strategic distress for the outside world. he felt the soviet union had a terrible error by having enemies spending so much on the military and exhausting the nation nation to maintain the small military when they didn't build up their own country. and he would slow down the growth of the military and worked to have better relations with all major powers, including japan especially. but i think that he would also
want to make sure that they didn't spend so much on the military. >> thank you, trans tasman. [applause] >> well come as you can see a good-sized crowd at the jacob javits convention center for book expo america committee annual book book publishing industries convention in new york city and one of the publishers represented here is the deal university press, john donatich is the direct third of that press. we want to ask you about some of the books coming out this fall. i'm going to start with former congressman congressman come in the key edwards has a new book coming out. >> academic yet restarted out as a congressman republican from oklahoma and now works at the aspen institute with gigs in between princeton and harvard. he's taking a look at basically how our political process has
been paralyzed by the bipartisanship, lack of tolerance for the proposal process right now. he has a number of steps one would suggest and how to fix the process. one, the house should not hold -- the house speaker should not denounce his party. that's one good thing. he thinks all this redistricting should be privatized and done with an independent counsel. the book is an analysis of the problem as it stands and also ways to fix it. >> he was a congressman back in the 80s, early 90s and has had quite the career ever since. >> is that princeton, harvard. he's been an op center, said it's an amazing career. >> mr. john donatich premises and jacoby is an author familiar to a lot of our viewers. she's been on her booktv
program. >> this is a book about one of the great acs, robert ingersoll, when the late 1870s ran for president and had a huge populace outcry of support for him. but the fact that he was pushing completely secular agenda paste a lot of people off. so his campaign was stopped short by people who had a real interest in preserving the churches of the state. susan jacoby is no stranger to this topic. did he book if you persico called freethinkers. ingersoll was a character and was so fascinated by this story that he decided to do a proper study of him. and has a lot of resident of the debate happening in the presidential election right now. >> when they ask you about an author are not familiar with, but a lot will be, will also make a.
>> molly so we've got is an incredible right sure. he's a nobel laureate, won the nobel prize for fiction and playwright and this is a book where he really wants to take a look at sort of the popular bias and sort of global condescension that happens in people talk about africa. there was a famous book written several decades ago called orientalism when it is the lack at how the west looked at the middle east basically in the far east and call that kind of orientalism. some of that perspective informs the boat. it's really about the western player or glance at africa and how we sort of condescend, how even the sword of well-intentioned policies that reparations from the land reparations humanitarian aid has an air of condescension is it
the west needs africa to be a to our conscience in a way. this is something he's not really denouncing the intention. he's denouncing the air of superiority that comes with it. i was one of the things that's interesting about the book. he also think it's possible to understand africa. it's not a hegemonic. it's not one people, not a nation, not even several nations. the very ideas of nationstates and travel states in the up she think of at a lot of understandings that we have. so it's a book that doesn't rest easy with all our presumptions about what africa is an challenges each of them. to my mind is one of the most profound books. >> to know where he lives and will he be touring the u.s.? >> that is complicated. he has an unpublished address.
he has a big security contingent q&a travels. in the meantime though he's had a lot of interest from nature's ink tanks in theaters, so we'll try to do some things people do them carefully with security, but i hope he'll say yes. he's done them before, so i have a reason to think we'll do it again. >> john donatich, how many but here does hill university press published? are you associate with the university aquatic >> we are completely owned by the university. where a $32 million publisher comest assertive middle sized independent publisher. we publish in four different areas. we have an artless composed of a couple hundred bucks and we produce and distribute them copublish 26 museum partners, chicago, london and a couple
dozen others and that's really a wonderful thing. we have a trade list which will tell you about today, books written by people who had intellectual capacity, the written for a wider audience. the academic imprint is a research driven and finally of course program. >> as a small independent publisher, how is your life changed in the last personal years, e-books, et cetera? >> is interesting. i think in the last several years of his more radical than in the past year. things are stabilizing, getting more project to bowl, the growth of e-books is not stratospheric anymore. seems to be something we can get our arms around. we publish most of our narrative driven book simultaneously as e-books. because of permissions issues in
the intensive design of those books and appear optic and it's a our books have not gone digital at all. it's a real print on medium. >> and finally, one more business related question. the unsettled mess of the google book settlement. is that something you follow closely? >> i do follow closely but at this point it is so old, the legacy is dragging on. so i don't think -- we learn to live with the doubt of what's going to happen with it. >> john donatich is direct to reveal university press. this is booktv on c-span 2. >> next, dambisa moyo talks about basic resources, which she says is huge, surpassing demands around the world. this is about an hour and 15.
>> good evening. how's everybody doing tonight? everybody's awake i hope, not freezing. my name is alyse cato, director of community programs at the world affairs council. chinese firms, many state owned are going global in case you haven't figured that out by now. very purchasing commodity, investing resources in accessing foreign markets. china has become one of the top investors in africa, south america and eastern europe. the top four holder of u.s. debt and is speculated to be buying up record quantities of gold. with a limited amount of resources on the line, what does china's race for resources mean for the rest of the world? for six years the world affairs council has word in global
understanding and engagement in greater seattle through programs for teachers and to bring delegates with local community members and organizations interpublic programs like this one tonight. programs made possible through sponsorships and community partnerships and would like to thank tonight sponsored commend microsoft for their support. it also like to thank all presenters are promotional support and include the greater seattle chinese chamber of commerce, the university of washington african studies program and at the of public affairs in seattle university's asian studies and global african studies program. as we do with all of our bands to reach a larger audience and the one here tonight, we are going to be tweeting this event. the hash tag will be moyo whack, so if you're on twitter, follow, join, ask questions, engage. we believe dialogue and
discussion are critical to developing the world and i invite you to participate in the conversation. we will do an open q&a for tonight's events in a volunteers passing around a wireless microphone. we do also have no cars available if you prefer to write down your question and pass it to a volunteer to ask for you. moderating tonight's q&a will be dr. anand yang can access of international studies and history at university of washington. june 2002 and 2010, he was director of the henry and jackson school of international studies. prior to joining university of washington, he taught at the university of utah where he was chair of the history department and subsequently director of the asian studies program. that your anand yang was wanted in india grew up and attended school in new delhi and finished high school in mexico city before moving to the united
states to attend college. so truly an international citizen joining us tonight. with that, quick introduction of her speaker. dambisa moyo is an international economist who focuses on macroeconomy in global affairs. she is the author of "the new york times" bestseller, what it is not working and how there's a better way for africa. she also just what they know that her new book just hit the bestseller list today -- yesterday i believe. in 2009, ms. tranter is named as one of the 100 most influential people in the world which is regularly published in the "financial times," economist magazine and "wall street journal." she completed a phd in economics at oxford university and holds a masters degree from harvard university. please join me in welcoming dambisa moyo to the stage. [applause] >> thank you very much.
thank you. >> good morning. i'm not too sure i like the idea of moyo wac. maybe the fact they dropped that is black i should feel better. but any cases that pleasure to be back in seattle. this is the first time that many come in many visits here is absolutely freezing cold hard summit that disappointed about that. thank you to microsoft and the world affairs council. they appreciate the opportunity to be back here and speak to you about what i think is the most important issue we will be facing in the decades to come, which is commodity scarcity. i originally had not planned to do slides because i think a concerted belabor the issue, but in retrospect and thinking about it some more, i have some slides
that are fantastic and illustrate a lot of what the story is. so i hope you will indulge me and i also hope you will be engaged enough and interested enough to push back and ask questions during the q&a. in terms of what i'd like to do this evening, i would like to basically break the discussion into three parts. first on going to spend time giving you a global snapshot of where demand and supply of the resources land, arable land in particular, water, energy and minerals are so that when we discuss what china is doing, he sat in the context of our global demand and supply pressures are. and secondly, i would then focus specifically on what china's specific demand and supply pressures are. again, that would be a good lead-in, sort of going from the aggregate at the macro world picture to drilling down into more specific china picture.
is that better? finally about to spend time talking about ongoing issues. i guess i'd classify this into two areas. and specifically detailing china's three-pronged approach to securing resources around the world and then i will spend a little bit of time talking to the more controversial issues, things like the charges of neocolonialism, labor and environmental issues that china is often accused of abuse of prisoners and so on so to motivate the discussion of where i think there may be a lot of misinformation. in any case they hope you enjoy the evening and have an opportunity to speak more about what's going on around the world. so i'm going to start off on the demand side come in the demand picture.
there are three key aspects, three key factors driving global demand. the first one as you can see from the site here is a global population. the world population, roughly 7 billion today is expected to skyrocket to 9 billion people on the planet by 2050. you can also see from the pictures in front of you that a lot of the demand pressure will be coming from the emerging markets. today almost 90% of the world's population lives in the world and that trend will continue with only roughly 12% of the worlds population living in developed economies. i want to state very clearly and up front that this growth isn't actually an aberration. it is something that has not been seen in historical context and actually many sociologists and demographers believe it will not be seen again after we
plateau around 10 billion people on the planet by 2100. i really liked this quote and if you indulge me all agreed that they sociologists. i think it's a sociologists as demographic reading. but his statement was as follows. the extraordinary proliferation of the human species cannot fail to be recognized as one of the principal features of modern world history. in historical perspective, it appears as a unique episode in the growth of the species. since its origin as a parallel or previous history or prehistory with the speed and magnitude expansion of numbers and it seems highly unlike lee but a comparable expansion will occur again in the future after the present trend has run its course. this is from 1966 because what we are dealing with now is a
very unique set of circumstances. in the 1950s and 60s a population of the world is 3 billion. we are now at seven and as i mentioned that will be going to nine and 10 by 2100. the very unique circumstances and this is why it is so to understand what this means for the world. dissecting key aspect or key factor driving demand is global wealth. not only are we getting larger in terms of population, but a lot more people are becoming wealthier. the estimates are we will have an additional 3 billion new people in the world metaclass by 2030, which is just around the corner. so it really is important to look at how those people who would like to live like us in this room in the sense that they would like to have itchy westerns tenders of living, how to demand pressures will be felt on the global resource supply. as you can see from the slide
presented here, a lot of that demand pressure from wealth will be largely thought from the growing middle class in places like asia and africa. you can also see places like eastern europe will have large increases in the middle class. the third aspect of demand pressure is urbanization. a lot of people will be aware that the chinese in particular have involved a large systematic or a program to. i put this charter. to illustrate for you how significant urbanization not only for china, but the rest of the emerging world. you can see from this chart that although there is almost 100 cities in china but at the million plus citizens living there, the united states only had niceties like that. europe only 18. the emerging world more generally is going to be the place where we will see much more urbanization had weathered
mexico city, by ghosts are many cities in a shed. the world expects by 2030 to have 3 billion new urbanites -- excuse me, moving from 3 billion today at 25 billion people living in urban areas. the pressures on commodities are enormous as people expect to have indoor plumbing, mobile phones, better buildings, but also in terms of agriculture studies because people who live in urban areas expect clean running water through the tabs, but also better quality food. so again, a massive driver in terms of where we see pressure for resources. i've talked about the population growth, talked about both increases and urbanization. these are the three key drivers on the demand side are your thoughts take a look at what is happening in supply. i mentioned earlier that there's four categories of supply across a commodity index that i think
are interesting. arable land, water, energy and minerals. let me for a few moments quickly go through key aspects that characterized the supply of these different assets from a global perspective. land, about her teen billion factors of land which is equivalent to 16 times the size of the united states. however, only 11% of our 1.4 billion of that land is arable and in that sense you can grow food. one of the things we tend to take for granted as we are not only fighting for arable land amongst ourselves as human beings, but also animals and planets featured -ist on arable land. a more than not, as you know a lot of arable land we do have access to his not being used to grow crops. what do i mean by that? a lot of the urban areas are actually built on arable land.
we are not living in death there comes the amount of arable land as as we start to see the population continue to rise significantly bold basically through pressures through more people are through water is a key challenge for the next decade. ..
>> this is the big it up when prices three to $4 a gallon. think the public policy issues as it pertains to commodities, with the emerging world water is a
much bigger issue. where water is rationed so many hours per day and the political dynamics the merger event by water vs. other energy. in the united states turning on the tap you would not expect no water or dirty water but in many places that is the case. water pressure is a very big deal in the years to come and energy for the western countries. to underscore the energy point* we live today and energy finds made the 1950 use.
with all the information we have in the world, and the ability of new technology, still would think off of discoveries from the 1950's. that was the biggest thing i a counter. people don't spend time looking like merck -- minerals whether mobile phones, the amount of minerals, copper, with an day-to-day culprits is the enormous. it becomes more difficult to access those resources, even to go over more difficult terrain and through politically
volunteered -- baller tile areas of the world. you can see from the diagram is where we last saw a mess of discoveries. that has plummeted is significantly. you do hear people say we have a massive discovery. one is the oilfield off of brazil. those will finance are not new. the one in brazil is my favorite because they found 100 billion barrels of oil and the price of foil when down but that will supply is under 2 miles of salt even today we cannot access it.
it would cost over $500 billion. you can imagine how difficult it is. every year in numerous people die to access these resources. i find it shocking oil is only $100 per barrel. those that died show it is a very expensive and chairman jane business. here is a mineral resources. it will be much harder to get resources such as copper or the low paying gain fruit to. you have to go to unstable places like the congo or irked chile there will be
more difficult political environments and the depth of the earth people have to go to the quality of copper ore minerals is not as high quality is difficult to get good quality. discovery is going down also fewer and fewer people going into the industry of mining i have given you a very tragic story. allotted demand and not a lot of supply. that is a global picture.
start with thai ned demand a story. about 300 million people live like us good news is the pressure on commodity is abating but there will be a large stock of population who with demanding increasing better access to resources. with population growth is something that will continue. many people are aware tied and india where the largest country is with proportion of gdp and made some
mistakes costing them 300 years of economic development. we're seeing wealth improvement across the emerging world. you can see how china will demand we have access to those resources. gdp growth is familiar with the soft landing. that gdp growth. over time that number will come down but in the interim as the chinese economy continues to powerhouse you can expect that greater resources demand.
again, more indication of buoyant is going on in. consumption it has focused on investment. chinese share consumption of gdp consumption is around 70%. and then it is not probably consuming enough. and to empower domestic demand washing machines, consumer durables
and mobile phones and there are no cars made in china from other companies like bmw and we expect there will be more demand across china. globally 3 billion new people coming into the urban areas this shows you where that is. it is a systematic plan to move people to the urban areas. education, health care, you can see the expectation of 202,051,000,000,000 people living in cities overt aid to cities with 10 million
people. i come from zambia and in china that is not even a real city. they have 23 cities with more than 5 million people. that is a significant drop on the resources. we have data on insensitivity of urbanization from commodity demand. you can see china as pacific sensitivity if you have one unit how do these commodities respond? pretty much cole, a gas, oil , all resources, a
sensitivity is much higher. the more urbanization the more demand on your resources. i will not spend too much time more demand for air conditioners but to talking a lot about minerals and oil but don't forget agriculture products are a big factor. tied at per-capita income this not demand anywhere near with the demand for meat products. mechanic's backed more chinese to become wealthy you concede increase in demand for better quality food, such as meat which is a significant amount of
pressure on resources. with wheat and bread, they are a hidden cost because a unit of beef has the moderate amount of water. just how much water is required for two friday diggs or a glass of milk. i hope people will be quite surprised and find it interesting. may have gone through urbanization to talk about the supply-side can those be met and of course, the answer is no or i would not have written the book. [laughter] start with food.
one of the biggest constraints in china is for the food is consumed there and unlike any other food sugar, wheat, that is what they cannot support adequately. as a percentage of world consumption there is a massive gap and producing only 25%. this is good for mitt romney or obama it is the big producer of soybeans mortgage generally you can
see for china this is a big opportunity. water, of massive problem this has led to aggressive action by china. one of the stories hitting the wire is china it is rerouting whole india -- river from india. there was a public announcement from the premier of china how they would try to work together but the need for fresh water is very clear and very well known to the rivers are polluted and there is not enough water to support the population. oil demand.
united states consumes that nine times of china. simply not enough domestic production of with the next several decades. there is a similar picture of from copper that is the most important mineral chided does not have but it needs. there is not enough copper for china. it has led them to go to three aggressive regions across south america and africa those that have been big targets into the resource markets.
as promised, a two talk about the ongoing issues to draw on the data publicly available there are some rumblings going on scarce and finite and depleting supplies. there is not the international body but this is quite surprising. we have the wto which is the copenhagen consensus, the g20 focusing on banking regulation but not one focusing on the big issue of commodities. surprisingly this has led to
wars and conflicts, not surprisingly. a number of the wars are shown what is going on around the world. summer civil wars some are cross-country border. the department of intelligence talks about the expected water wars but beyond that there is the database that goes back 1,000 years. it is fascinating because places that are vulnerable are still on the same region. the middle east, africa, the
drought is more significant. because you will see a lot of the water wars are not even reflected. this is a statement from the national intensive -- defense council over the next 10 years water's shortages are likely be to lead to social disruptions pressure on leaders and political instability. the second one talks about the lack of water we use as a leverage for terrorist organizations. not much is done about it to the best of my understanding except if you are china. it has adopted the
three-pronged approach i will explain these aspects. first, the ada to be friend the access -- axis of the unloved. china going to different regions traditionally places like the united states or europe has ignored. you have to appreciate they have very large pockets of people who are young. in africa 60% is under the age of 24. middle east, 24, uganda population under the age of 15. it is really important this is what tae can offer.
it provides trade, investment, capital building roads and in return they are happy to mortgage resources. i would like to give a few examples. their fascinating but i will share a few right now. 2006 china bought a mounted in peru, the middle rights half the height of mount everest paid $3 billion. in brazil they have been gauged in chicken, beef swaps and in return they get access to the beef and chicken. with canada with the new deal called pork for laptops. it is surprising the chinese supply canada with laptops
and get pork. rochelle has the 25 year-old swap fort will and swap uranium for the nuclear program also the distance from the northernmost to this of the most point* of the continent is three times the distance of new york to california the whole distance is road going to 15 countries, it will take five weeks to drive it then there is a generous gift from china. i hope policy-makers have not missed they are investing but they are expecting to get access to
the resources. and any guesses? australia. china at in every country as part of their campaign. the second aspect of the zero cost of capital. they have basically no price control those through the model to estimate the value of the podium is a hundred million dollars then they say we will pay 500. the reason why they pay more is of the utility functions then for the return on
investment. otherwise they have a political problem. because of that, those traditional models i believe are faulty. it helps china haskins a lot of money. they have saved $3 trillion of reserves and that is significant to have strong buying power. i talk about cautionary remarks south korean ministers saying don't bother to compete with the chinese. one place ahead he did of this in africa because today it has the most unbilled arable land left on the planet. china only has 10% of africa
is a big place to gain resources. last is the price center on the buying side. it is now like a soap -- supermarket based and iowa it can set the price because all the farmers and i would try to sell the tomatoes to one supermarket is so they say i only will pay $0.30. but in particular copper and coal are viewed as two minerals where china has so much influence. you can imagine and think about how transformational
china's activities are. to talk about publicly traded markets and here we have one fire that is so huge to influence the price. that is significant. i will talk about the outstanding issues. this is it issue where there is not enough information that is true, there is misinformation to the dead detriment to solve this very serious problem. i like to go through a few examples. the first is around
neocolonialism. tried to take on risk and regions. as a political construct, net is not in africa or self america for political gain. they have no interest to find out what is going on politicay. they just care about the agenda. they have to get the resources. with anything there is criticism that they will do with correct -- corrupt leaders on the ground. and with the western press to see china foray into emerging-market is the
colonial campaign. i disagree with that. you hear people say the chinese take advantage of africans. i would refer you to a study conducted by american institutions, 2007 when it to fed 10 countries in efforts at and because what do you think about the chinese? day you hate them? better or worse than the americans? by 95% that african said the chinese improve our livelihood and they are better than americans. it is an important message to get out. i do believe the relationship is dynamic. that general sentiment is
positive. go to places that are more developed it is also the largest lender to the misstates government with a lot more concern the relationship is dynamic. a few decades ago that relationship was amicable as brazil has become wealthier. but it is this place to say people are being abused and they'll like it. it is more nuance and that. you hear no effort ken's are employed. in the book i have